Executive Summary
AUD/SGD trades at 0.8910 (latest close: April 1), having retreated approximately 2.5% from its March 11 high of 0.9138 — the 52-week peak. The pair has rallied 6.79% over the past year and 4.59% over six months, driven by the RBA's aggressive hiking cycle widening the rate differential to approximately +298bps over SORA. However, the March pullback reflects a bilateral tug-of-war: the RBA's G10-leading 4.10% rate supports AUD carry, while the expected MAS tightening at the April 14 MPS — with nearly 50% of forecasters expecting a steeper S$NEER slope — and SGD's safe-haven status in the Iran war provide a powerful headwind for the pair. The dominant bilateral narrative is a conflict between the widest AUD-SGD nominal rate differential in years and the imminent policy tightening from MAS that mechanically guides SGD appreciation. Our tactical stance is mildly bearish at low conviction, as the MAS April tightening creates a near-term catalyst for pair decline, while our strategic stance is neutral, reflecting genuinely offsetting forces: RBA terminal rate at 4.85% versus MAS's managed appreciation slope compounding over 6 months.