Executive Summary
USD/CHF trades at 0.7924, near multi-year lows and at the 20th percentile of its 52-week range (0.7607–0.9201), with the pair having fallen 3.1% over the past year despite a +1.8% rebound in March. The dominant bilateral narrative is a tug-of-war between the widest G10 carry differential (Fed at 3.625% vs SNB at 0.00% = +363bps) and relentless safe-haven demand for CHF driven by the Iran-US war, which has pushed CHF to decade-highs against both USD and EUR. The March rebound — the largest monthly gain since January 2025 — was driven by the DXY breakout above its 200-day MA on war-premium flows, but USD/CHF remains firmly below its own 200-day MA (0.7919), confirming the structural bearish trend persists. Both dossiers agree on CHF strength through complementary channels: the USD dossier is strategically bearish USD on rate differential compression and twin deficits, while the CHF dossier is bullish CHF on safe-haven demand, SNB intervention constraints, and structural current account surplus. Our headline stance is Bearish USD/CHF (CHF strengthening) with moderate conviction at both horizons (tactical 3/5, strategic 4/5), with the caveat that the +363bps carry differential provides a persistent headwind and the June 14 Swiss referendum represents an underpriced binary upside risk for the pair.