Executive Summary
AUD/NZD trades at 1.1900 (per the AUD dossier cross rate), with the pair sitting above both its 50-day SMA (~1.16) and 200-day SMA (~1.14), confirming a structurally bullish alignment. The pair has gained approximately 9.6% over the past year, driven by the most stark central bank policy divergence in the Antipodean cross in over a decade. The dominant bilateral narrative is unambiguously one of RBA hawkishness against RBNZ stasis: a 3.85% cash rate versus 2.25% OCR produces a 160bps bilateral carry advantage for the AUD leg — the widest RBA-RBNZ gap in the cycle — and this differential is still widening as OIS markets price a further RBA hike to 4.10% by May. The AUD dossier is tactically neutral-bullish but strategically bullish; the NZD dossier is tactically neutral-bearish but strategically mildly bullish. When these views are synthesised bilaterally, the AUDNZD signal is cleaner and more directional than either standalone view: virtually every factor aligns bullishly for the pair, with NZD's sole offsetting strength (dairy ToT, short-covering squeeze risk) insufficient to arrest the structural divergence. Our headline stance is tactically Bullish with conviction 3/5, rising to strategically Bullish with conviction 4/5 as the RBA hiking cycle extends and the RBNZ upgrade scenario remains distant. The key tactical caveat is that the pair is approaching the psychologically important 1.2000 level — a multi-year ceiling — and any near-term pullback toward 1.1750–1.1850 should be used as strategic long entry rather than as a bearish signal.