Executive Summary
The Singapore Dollar trades at USD/SGD 1.2710, its strongest level against the greenback since October 2014, representing approximately 5.2% appreciation over the past twelve months. The SGD is underpinned by an exceptional macro constellation: 5.0% full-year 2025 GDP growth (the best since 2010), electronics NODX surging +56.1% YoY on the AI semiconductor supercycle, MAS Core Inflation at a benign 1.0%, and a current account surplus of ~18% of GDP — the largest in the G10+SGD benchmarking set. The dominant risk is the Iran-US war (launched February 28), which spiked Brent crude to $119/bbl before a retreat to ~$88 on ceasefire signals, creating a direct adverse terms-of-trade shock for Singapore as a net oil importer but partially offset by surging refining margins. MAS held all S$NEER band parameters at its January 29, 2026 review with a hawkish tilt, and the April review is now a live event with 47% of economists expecting a tightening (slope increase). Our stance is Bullish SGD at both tactical and strategic horizons, with higher conviction strategically (3/5 tactical, 4/5 strategic), reflecting the structural dominance of Singapore's external surplus, semiconductor-driven growth, and the ongoing broad USD depreciation cycle.